Waiting for Milburn: what we know, and what providers can do now

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In this article: We look at what Alan Milburn’s interim report found about young people not in education, employment, or training, and what the Budget confirmed for providers, including the government’s response timetable. We also cover what’s still unknown, practical steps providers could take now (plus a free guide), and how to register for our webinar on the final report. | 4 minute read.


Alan Milburn's final report on young people and work is one of the most anticipated publications for the skills sector this year. It hasn't been published yet, but a good deal is already clear: the scale of the challenge, the government's timetable for responding, and the measures already confirmed in the Budget.

Here's what we know, what we don't, and some practical steps providers can take while we wait.

What the interim report found

Milburn's interim report, Young People and Work was published in May 2026. Commissioned by the DWP, it looked at why the number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) has risen. Importantly, it set out a diagnosis rather than recommendations.

Its key findings include:

  • Nearly one million young people aged 16 to 24 in the UK are NEET: one in eight.

  • Without change, this could rise to more than 1.25 million, over 16%, within five years.

  • In a survey for the review, 84% of NEET young people said they want to find a job, education or training.

  • Over six in ten (61.6%) NEET young people have never had a job, up from around four in ten in 2005.

  • The report estimates the annual cost of almost one million NEET young people at £125 billion, more than the country spends on education each year.

The report describes "a whole system failure" across education, health, welfare and the labour market, noting that the first rungs on the old career ladder have weakened. As it puts it: "That is not a failure of young people, but a failure of a system stuck in the past."

What the Budget confirmed

The Budget on 28 October didn't pre-empt Milburn's recommendations, but it set out a timetable and confirmed several measures relevant to providers.

A timetable for the government's response: The government will respond to Milburn's final report before the end of this year. A White Paper will follow early in 2027, ahead of legislation later that year.

Youth employment funding: The Budget confirmed funding for the Youth Employment and Skills Package announced in the spring. This includes the £3,000 Youth Jobs Grant for businesses hiring eligible young unemployed people, an extension of the Jobs Guarantee to those aged 22 to 24, and a £2,000 hiring payment for new young apprentices taken on by non-levy employers in England.

Local apprenticeship services in every mayoral area: £100 million across 2027-28 and 2028-29 will expand local apprenticeship services from 7 to 14 Mayoral Strategic Authorities. This means all current mayors will be able to offer tailored support to young people and employers, particularly SMEs, to create more apprenticeship opportunities.

Apprentices on government projects: At least 3% of the workforce on large government construction and infrastructure projects will need to be apprentices.

Apprentice pay: From 1 April 2027, the apprentice minimum wage rises by 3.9% to £8.31 an hour.

The Union Learning Fund returns: The fund supports learning and training projects put forward by trade unions, helping workers upskill as the economy changes. It will be re-established in England, with £15 million a year from 2027-28.

The Budget was also clear that these measures aren't the end of the story. Quoting Milburn's interim report, it said: "the welfare system should be more than a safety net. It should be a springboard." It added that "an entirely new approach is needed". How that ambition becomes policy will depend on the final report.

What we don't know yet

The most important detail is still to come. We don't yet know:

  • When the final report will be published, although it's expected in November

  • What Milburn will recommend

  • Which recommendations the government will accept, and how they'll be funded, beyond what was set out in the Budget

  • What any changes will mean for apprenticeship funding rules

We'll learn more when the final report and the government's response are published, and more again when the White Paper arrives in 2027.

Practical steps for providers

In the meantime, providers are already well placed to prepare. Whatever the final report recommends, a few things are worth doing now.

Know your numbers on young learners: How many of your learners are aged 16 to 24? How long do they stay? And when do they tend to withdraw? Having that picture will help you plan, and it will help you make your case as the government sets out its plans.

Talk to employers about what's already confirmed: The £2,000 apprentice hiring payment, the £3,000 Youth Jobs Grant and the April 2027 wage rise all affect the cost of taking on a young person.

Get to know your mayoral authority: With local apprenticeship services expanding to every mayoral area, it's worth understanding what's planned where you work.

Check your links to construction and infrastructure: If you work with employers on large government projects, the new 3% apprentice requirement may affect their plans.

Review how you support young learners: The interim report highlighted health, including mental health, and the difficulty young people face in getting work experience. And with increased focus from Ofsted now on inclusion and wellbeing, it's a good moment to look at your support and early intervention practices.

Be ready to share your experience: Providers see first-hand what helps young people start and stay on an apprenticeship. That insight will be valuable as the government's response and White Paper take shape.

Get your free provider guide

To help you take stock, we’ve put together a free guide for providers. It covers your young learners and your offer, support and early intervention, employer conversations, local partnerships, and data and systems, all based on what’s already been confirmed. Not every item will apply to every organisation, but it’s a useful way to see where you stand before the final report lands.

Join us when the report lands

We'll be running a webinar: After Milburn: So, what now for providers? shortly after the final report is published. The session will bring together sector voices to digest what the report means for providers, as well as taking a look at what Bud's data can tell us about how to support 16-24s into training.

The webinar date will be confirmed once the report is published - we expect it to take place in early December - but register your interest now and we'll send you the full details as soon as they're available. 

 

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